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Welcome to Our June 2013 Issue

Dear Reader,

One of the thorniest challenges in diplomacy is knowing when, or whether, to engage adversaries or enemies in the hope or conviction that doing so will bring about reconciliation and greater security. It is a challenge freighted with risk for political leaders internationally and domestically; as Mel Gurtov, the guest editor of the cover package in this issue of Global Asia, writes, leaders are exposed at home and abroad to accusations of weakness, or worse, naiveté, if efforts at engagement are rebuffed or fail.

At the center of international efforts to deal with the potential security threats posed by states such as North Korea and Iran is the perennial tactical choice between carrots and sticks — whether conciliatory inducements to dialogue and negotiation or sanctions and other punitive measures are the best course to alter a nation’s behavior. Then, of course, there is the argument in favor of carrots and sticks together. In recent years, North Korea and Iran have taken a largely defiant stance toward the international community, particularly over efforts to halt their nuclear programs. As this issue of Global Asia went to press, there were signs that both countries may be willing to consider a less confrontational approach. North Korea announced it would like to hold high-level talks with the United States to ease tensions, while voters in Iran resoundingly elected a relative moderate, Hassan Rohani, as the country’s new president. It remains to be seen whether these two developments open the window to engagement with the international community.

Our cover package analyzes the strategic opportunities offered by engagement, both theoretically and in the context of North Korea, Iran and also Myanmar, which is in the early stages of embracing reforms. Most of the articles derive from presentations at a conference, “Engaging Enemies,” at Indiana University, April 19-20. It examined how the strategy and modalities of engagement might be applied in North Korea and other challenging cases. It was the seventh conference in a series, “Historical Reconciliation and Security Co-operation in Northeast Asia,” that an informal group of scholars has organized since 2006.

Elsewhere in this issue, we assess the risks of Japan’s new economic policies under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as well as the direction in which Abe’s more nationalistic approach to politics could lead the country if it overshadows his more pragmatic tendencies. We also offer a rare on-the-ground look at life in a changing North Korea. As part of our ongoing analysis of the disputes in the South China Sea, we devote our In Focus section to exploring possible avenues for a resolution of these festering disagreements. In our debate section, we ask whether political reconciliation is possible in Malaysia following a particularly bitter national election that saw the ruling party returned to power, but with less than a majority of the popular vote.

Finally, in this issue we take the first steps to increase the number and range of book reviews we offer, especially our short reviews, which have received much positive feedback since we introduced them in 2011.

Sincerely yours,

Chung-in Moon, Editor-in-Chief

David Plott, Managing Editor

June 2013
Vol.8 No.2

Carrots Before Sticks:
Positive Engagement with North Korea, Iran and Myanmar Letter to Readers
Cover Story

Carrots Before Sticks: Positive Engagement with North Korea, Iran and Myanmar

When faced with an enemy or adversary, when is it better to charm and befriend, and when to threaten and snarl? The question bedevils leaders who fear to be seen either as weak or as a bully. In the context of North Korea, Iran and Myanmar, however, the world has long seen the shortcomings and often perverse repercussions of policies that stress punishment, sanctions and threats. It is time to take a closer look at the strategic possibilities offered by policies of engagement.
- Mel Gurtov (103)
  Engaging Enemies: Fraught With Risk, Necessary for Peace
  The idea of engaging adversaries in order to achieve peaceful international relations is often risky, but it may be the best hope for resolving thorny challenges posed by countries such as North Korea and Iran. By Mel Gurtov
- Hyunjin Seo, Stuart J. Thorson (94)
  From Adversaries to Partners: Academic Science Engagement with North Korea
  The US should promote engagement between American and North Korean academic scientists as a path to drawing the North closer to the international community. By Stuart J. Thorson and Hyunjin Seo
- Trita Parsi (99)
  Dead-End Diplomacy: Washington's Failed Sanctions on Iran
  The US has imposed the most comprehensive unilateral sanctions regime in history against Iran, despite Washington's insistence that it is also pursuing diplomatic efforts to resolve differences over Iran's nuclear program. By Trita Parsi
- Miroslav Nincic (102)
  Carrots, Sticks and Domestic Politics
  The core meaning of constructive engagement lies in the role that domestic politics plays in a country that wishes to engage an adversary, as well as in those countries being engaged. By Miroslav Nincic
- Walter C. Clemens, Jr (101)
  Hubris Versus GRIT: Put Pride Aside and Help Korea Find Peace
  Years of ignorant, pride-driven foreign policy have characterized relations in Northeast Asia, and this is amply evident in the continuing standoff over North Korea's nuclear program. By Walter C. Clemens, Jr.
- Karin J. Lee (92)
  Food Aid Can't Buy You Love: The Role of Humanitarian Assistance in North Korea
  The debate over humanitarian assistance, and in particular food aid, for North Korea has for years been bedeviled by disagreements over whether that assistance should be linked to engagement in other areas such as security issues. By Karin J. Lee
- Andrei Lankov (95)
  Getting to Know You: How Social Exchanges Can Help Solve the North Korea Problem
  Andrei Lankov argues that exposing the country to information and people from the outside world can spur change from within, in much the same way that communist Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union were changed by exposure to the West.
- Troy Stangarone (91)
  Zone of Engagement: Can North Korea’s Kaesong Complex Be Internationalized?
  The Kaesong Industrial Complex continues to play an important role in North-South relations. Troy Stangarone takes a look at the industrial zone and the South Korean government’s ambitions for it. By Troy Stangarone
- Nicholas Farrelly (98)
  Going Its Own Way: Regime Change, Myanmar-Style
  Myanmar's ongoing democratic transformation has been driven by a dizzying number of factors: internal forces in the military, democratic activism, domestic struggle and both soft pressure and hard sanctions from countries abroad. By Nicholas Farrelly
The Debate

Is Political Reconciliation Possible in Malaysia?
- Khairy Jamaluddin (101)
  Despite Differences, Malaysians Can Still Come Together
  The need for Malaysians to move on after a fractious, bitter general election is paramount. Once the courts settle any election complaints, reconciliation is possible. By Khairy Jamaluddin
- Rafizi Ramli (100)
  Reconciliation Is Impossible Without Meaningful Reforms
  Prime Minister Najib Razak is failing to learn the biggest lesson of the election, that the voters have unambiguously demanded political, electoral and media reforms. By Rafizi Ramli
Features
- Gongpil Choi (100)
  Japan's Dangerous Gamble: 'Abenomics' and Its Implications
  The Bank of Japan’s decision to pump vast sums of money into the country’s financial system is fraught with risks that could backfire, harming the global economy. By Gongpil Choi
- Cheol Hee Park (105)
  The Double Life of Shinzo Abe
  Shinzo Abe's early and aggressive moves to boost the economy appeared to work, but another side of Abe re-emerged with force: an ideological, nationalist one that many inside and outside of Japan see as less than beautiful. By Cheol Hee Park
- Rüdiger Frank (156)
  Rolling Reforms: Reflections on Visits to Kim Jong Un's North Korea
  On visits to North Korea since Kim Jong Un came to power, Rüdiger Frank has seen growing evidence of a more diverse and cash-based economy. By Rüdiger Frank
In Focus

Paths to Peace in Southeast Asia’s Contested Waters
- Stein Tønnesson (141)
  Steps Forward for China to Resolve its Disputes in the South China Sea
  Despite the escalation of South China Sea tension, negotiated solutions are possible if China recognizes that it is better off pursuing negotiations rather than insisting on maritime claims that are not in line with international law. By Stein Tønnesson
- Hong Nong, Mark J. Valencia (97)
  Joint Development Possibilities: What, Where, Who and How?
  One way to deal with the South China Sea conflict is to explore the various formulas for joint development of the area in a fair and co-operative manner. By Mark J. Valencia and Hong Nong
Book Reviews
- Stein Tønnesson (153)
  The Ins and Outs of a Geopolitical Mess
  Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes, is the most authoritative and up-to-date analysis existing of the complex disputes that have marred China's relationship with the ASEAN, the United States, India and Japan. By Stein Tønnesson
- John Delury (66)
  A Roundup of Recent Titles
  Short reviews of North Korea in Transition: Politics, Economy, and Society, edited by Kyung-Ae Park and Scott Snyder; Digital Disconnect: How Capitalism Is Turning the Internet Against Democracy, by Robert W. McChesney, etc. By John Delury
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