A JOURNAL OF THE EAST ASIA FOUNDATION GO TO WWW.KEAF.ORG
Who can say what Asia might look like in 20 years’ time? No one with any real degree of certainty, but the events and trends of today give pointers. North Korea’s continuing nuclearization, military build-ups around the region, Japan’s probing constitutional reforms, swelling mega-cities and shifting demographics across Asia — all are examples of changes under way that will see a dramatically different Asia in coming decades.
Five linked mega-trends signal the old order is passing, a new emerging.
It has served well but is not assured.
The build-up of military capabilities among major powers in the regionis a major concern. The next 10 years are critical.
Asia faces a pressing need to deal with its rapidly aging population
Young Asians value what political systems deliver more than their underlying principles.
A move is needed from corporatized cities to urban centers characterized by inclusive, progressive governance.
Efforts at the urban, rural and national level can help alleviate a future of violent weather, coastal flooding and food shortages.
Women still face violence and discrimination.
A drastic change in the Chinese mindset is required to accept that the South China Sea is a shared resource vital to many nations.
It is in Beijing’s and Manila’s strategic interests to come to an agreement. Basic principles of law should also be considered.
Closer military ties between the two powers show Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s willingness to move relations to a new level.
Deployment in South Korea could heighten tensions in East Asia and beyond without really enhancing security.
Russia and China are closer but also competing, and Russia is losing. But will this be a boon to either side?
Once Myanmar’s closest ally, Beijing has had to adjust to a diminished role, but relations remain close for both countries economically and strategically.
Moscow is “looking east,” and this could include closer ties with Japan, if both sides are creative and engaged.
Shinzo Abe’s longstanding interest in changing Japan’s US-scripted constitution is a perennial worry for those who sense danger.
The UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU has cast doubt on Europe’s future and triggered reflections on ASEAN’s accomplishments and prospects.
With the EU seeking free-trade agreements with individual ASEAN countries, the UK vote throws negotiators a fresh challenge.
The Dictator’s Dilemma: The Chinese Communist Party’s Strategy for Survival, Isolate or Engage: Adversarial States, US Foreign Policy, and Public Diplomacy, The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World, China’s Next Strategic Ad
Andrei P. Tsygankov’s Russian Foreign Policy: Changeand Continuity in National Identity is intellectual refreshment for those bored with realist power logics prevailing in world politics.